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Bio Systems Modelling

Bio-Systems Modelling

Prof Cathal O’Donoghue (Dean, College Arts, Social Sciences and Celtic Studies)

PhD Students

  1. Niall Farrell, Economics of Marine Renewable Energy 2009-2013 (Post Doc, Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin)
  2. AksanaChyzheuskaya, Economics of the Water Framework Directive, 2009 –2013 (Post Doc, NUIG)
  3. Kevin Kilcline, Economics of the Irish Sheep Sector, 2010 –  (Economist, IFA; Agricultural Economist, NUI Galway)
  4. Mary Ryan, Forestry Systems Modelling, 2011 - 2016  (Environmental Economist, Teagasc)
  5. Dan Clavin, Organic Beef Systems Modelling 2012 – (Organic Specialist, Teagasc)
  6. Suzanne Van Ousch, Aquaculture Systems Modelling 2014 -
  7. Ed Knapp, Dairy Bio-Systems Modelling, 2015 –

Bio-Economic Systems models are used to assess the economic impact in a business, whether farm, forest, aquaculture, bio-energy business etc of changes in biological processes. The modelling approach combines the modelling of biological processes with an economic assessment.

A significant modelling infrastructure has and is being developed by jointly by researchers in Teagasc and NUI Galway to support the needs of bio-based industries in Ireland. The cluster links Teagasc’s Rural Economy and Development Programme and NUIG’s Plant and AgriBiosciences Research Centre within the MOU between the two institutions.

Some of the models being developed and used within the group include:

  1. Sheep Systems Model – this model has been developed using the Teagasc National Farm Survey to model the economic impact of animal demographic processes, grass growth and feed demand on sheep farms by Kevin Kilcline (NUIG-Teagasc), Cathal O’Donoghue (Teagasc) and Stephen Hynes (NUIG)
  2. FORBES – the Forestry Bio-Economic model developed to assess the economic trade-off in land use between forestry and agriculture developed by Mary Ryan (Teagasc), Cathal O’Donoghue (Teagasc) and Stephen Hynes (NUIG). There is a proposal to adapt this model to analyse in addition the GHG-Economic trade-off with Chaosheng Zhang (NUIG). This framework has been utilised to provide forest level advice in Teagasc’s FIVE decision support tool.
  3. Organic Feed Cost Model – An adaptation of Teagasc’s Grange Feed Cost Model to assess the nutrition-GHG-economic trade-off of different feed stuffs. The model adaptation analyses the implications across this triangular trade-off for taking an organic approach. The model was originally developed by Paul Crosson (Teagasc) and Eoin Finneran (Teagasc) and is being adapted by Dan Clavin (Teagasc-NUIG), Cathal O’Donoghue (Teagasc), Charles Spillane (NUIG) and Cathal Buckley (NUIG) to look at organic conversion. Cathal Buckley (Teagasc) is adapting the stylised farm approach to look the implications of farms with different technical and bio-physical characteristics.
  4. Dairy NFS Systems Model - this model is being developed using the Teagasc National Farm Survey to model the economic impact of animal demographic processes, grass growth and feed demand on dairy farms by Ed Knapp (NUIG-Teagasc), Cathal O’Donoghue (Teagasc), Brendan Horan (Teagasc), Laurence Shalloo (Teagasc) and Stephen Hynes (NUIG)
  5. Aquaculture Bio-Systems Model – this model is being developed to model the economic-environment impact on multi-species. Her research involves the development of Integrated Multi-trophic Aquaculture (IMTA) and focuses on the socio-economic and ecological effects of integrating aquaculture production processes. It has been developed by Suzanne Van Ousch (NUIG) and Stephen Hynes (NUIG).
  6. Sea Fisheries – Colleagues at the Socio-Economics Marine Research Unit (SEMRU) at NUIG, Noami Foley (NUIG) and Tom Van Rensburg (NUIG) have developed bio-economic models of sea fisheries for a number of different species.
  7. Marine Energy Bio-Systems Models – Niall Farrell (EPA-NUIG), Cathal O’Donoghue  (Teagasc) and Karyn Morrissey (University of Portsmouth) developed a bio-systems model to examine the economic-environment trade-off of marine wave energy devices, incorporating risk, spatial impact, economic impact and environmental impact. It provides a novel framework to evaluate the economic, spatial and environmental impact of  this new bio-based technologies.

There are future opportunities to develop and create new models in the following areas

  • Tillage crops as there is currently no national capacity
  • Extend the sytlised beef systems models to incorporate farm level heterogeneity in beef systems in Ireland
  • Downscale systems models to local level to incorporate agronomic variation
  • Extend the economic-environmental to consider land use implications
  • Develop decision support tools to facilitate enterprise level decisions
  • Adapt the marine energy modelling framework to evaluate the economic, spatial and environmental impact of alternative bio-based technologies.
  • Adapt bio-systems models for a development context

Publications

Journal Articles

  1. Armstrong, C.W., Foley, N.S., Kahui, V. and Grehan, A. (2014). Cold water coral reef management from an ecosystem service perspective. Marine Policy, 50(A):126-134. Download at: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308597X14001468#
  2. Armstrong, C.W., Foley, N.S., Tinch, R. and van den Hove, S. (2012). Services from the deep: steps towards valuation of deep sea goods and services. Ecosystem Services 2: 2-13.
  3. Chyzheuskaya Aksana, Cathal O'Donoghue and Stephen O’Neill. (2014) Using a Farm Micro-simulation Model to Evaluate the Impact of the Nitrogen Reduction Mitigation Measures on the Farm Income in Ireland. International Journal of Agricultural Management. Volume 3, Issue 4, pp 232-242.
  4. Clavin, D. Paul Crosson, Jim Grant, Padraig O’Kiely, forthcoming. Red clover for silage: management impacts on herbage yield, nutritive value, ensilability and persistence, and relativity to perennial ryegrass Grass and Forage Science.
  5. Farrell, N., O' Donoghue, C. and Morrissey, K. (2015). Quantifying the uncertainty of wave energy conversion device cost for policy appraisal: An Irish case study. Energy Policy, 78: 62-77. Download at: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421514006375
  6. Falk-Andersson, J., Foley, N.S., Armstrong, C. W., van den Hove, S., van Rensburg, T. M., and Tinch, R. (2015). A deliberative approach to valuation and precautionary management of cold water corals in Norway, Maritime Studies, 14: 7. Download at: http://www.maritimestudiesjournal.com/content/14/1/7 
  7. Foley, N.S., Armstrong, C.W. and Grehan, A. (2012) Cold Water Coral - Managing a Valuable Resource. Deliverable 60 under WP8, FP7 CoralFISH: Report
  8. Foley, N.S., Armstrong, C.W., Chen, X, Kahui, V., Kaspersen, I.W., Mikkelsen, E. and Reithe, S. (2011) Report on coral-fisheries interactions - theoretical and applied bioeconomic analysis. Deliverable D35 under WP8, FP7 CoralFISH: Report
  9. Foley, N.S., Armstrong, C.W., Kahui, V., Mikkelsen, E. and Reithe, S. (2012). A review of bioeconomic modelling of habitat fisheries interactions. International Journal of Ecology vol. 2012, article ID 861635.
  10. Foley, N. Kahui, V., Armstrong, C., and van Rensburg, T. (2010). Estimating Linkages between Redfish and Cold Water Coral on the Norwegian Coast. Marine Resource Economics, 25: 105-120
  11. Foley, N., van Rensburg, T and Armstrong, C. (2011). The rise and fall of the Irish orange roughy fishery: An economic analysis. Marine Policy, 35(6): 756-763
  12. Foley, N., van Rensburg, T. and Armstrong, C. (2010). The Irish Orange Roughy Fishery: An Economic Analysis, SEMRU Working Paper 10-WP-SEMRU-10
  13. Hynes, S.P., O'Donoghue, C., Murphy, E. and Kinsella, A. (2008). The impact of REPS participation on farm chemical input usage and the production of negative externalities. Irish Journal of Agri-Environmental Research Vol 6: pp16-2717561
  14. Kilcline, Kevin, Cathal O’Donoghue, Thia Hennessy, Stephen Hynes. Economic factors affecting concentrate usage on Irish sheep farms. International Journal of Agricultural Management. Volume 3, Issue 4, pp 243-252.
  15. Kilcline, K., Hynes, S., O'Donoghue, C., Hennessy, T. (2015). Systems approach to the economic impact of technical performance in the sheep sector. 89th Agricultural Economics Society Annual Conference, 13-15 April, Warwick, England
  16. O’Donoghue Cathal, Alistair McKinstry, Stuart Green, Reamonn Fealy, Kevin Heanue, Mary Ryan, Kevin Connolly, JC Desplat, Brendan Horan, Paul Crosson (2016). Developing a Big Data Analytical Solution to Low Farmer Engagement with Financial Management, International Agriculture and Food Management Review.
  17. Ryan, Mary, Cathal O’Donoghue, Henry Phillips. (2016) Modelling financially optimal afforestation and management scenarios. Open Journal of Forestry.

Upton Vincent, Mary Ryan, Niall Farrelly, and Cathal O’Donoghue (2013), The Potential Economic Returns of Converting Agricultural Land to Forestry: An Analysis of System and Soil Effects from